U.S.-China Trade Truce Eases Pressure as Trans-Pacific Rates Hit 2026 High

The latest extension of the U.S.-China trade truce is providing some relief for importers and carriers, but trans-Pacific freight rates continue to climb, highlighting the ongoing impact of congestion and constrained vessel capacity.

The U.S. Trade Representative had not formally announced a deferral of proposed port-call fees targeting China-linked vessels as of this week. However, the broader trade de-escalation has increased expectations that implementation could be delayed. The fees had represented a potentially significant additional cost for carriers operating Chinese-built or Chinese-operated vessels in U.S. trades.

Under the latest agreement, Washington and Beijing will reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion of reciprocal imports to most-favored-nation levels, subject to required legal procedures. The relief covers nearly 80 U.S. product categories, while China's list includes more than 1,600 products, primarily agricultural goods and commodities.

While modest compared with more than $400 billion in annual U.S.-China trade, the changes remove some near-term uncertainty heading into the critical year-end shipping and retail season.

Despite expectations that demand would ease following China's Golden Week holiday, trans-Pacific spot rates moved higher again. Asia-U.S. West Coast rates climbed to approximately $8,400 per FEU, a new high for 2026, while East Coast rates remained near $9,600 per FEU, roughly $200 below their late-August peak.

The elevated pricing is increasingly being driven by blanked sailings, port congestion and carrier allocation controls, rather than demand alone. Carriers have extended capacity reductions through the Golden Week period and into late October, while some have reportedly tightened allocations to contracted forwarders.

Port delays remain a significant constraint on the global container network. Sea-Intelligence estimates that delays are currently absorbing more than 8% of global vessel capacity, with disruptions potentially taking many months to fully unwind. Higher bunker costs related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are adding another layer of pressure, potentially keeping a higher floor under container rates even as seasonal demand begins to moderate.

That elevated baseline could become particularly important heading into the Lunar New Year shipping cycle, when carriers typically seek higher rates as bookings accelerate.

There is some positive news for Asia-U.S. East Coast shippers. Improved rainfall and water levels have allowed the Panama Canal Authority to restore daily Neopanamax transits to 10 and increase the maximum authorized draft to 49 feet in mid-October. The move reverses restrictions imposed in August and reduces the immediate risk of additional diversions, delays and costs for cargo moving through the canal. However, the improvement may not be permanent, as an expected El Niño pattern could reduce rainfall later in the year and potentially lead to renewed operating restrictions.

Asia-Europe markets remain on a different trajectory. Asia-North Europe spot rates fell another 9% to approximately $3,400 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates declined 7% to about $3,600 per FEU. The declines reflect softer demand and gradually increasing effective capacity as more vessels return to Red Sea routes. Still, several carriers are seeking late-October general rate increases, signaling efforts to slow the market's downward movement.

For now, the global container market remains divided: trans-Pacific rates are being supported by constrained capacity and congestion, while Asia-Europe pricing continues to normalize from its peak-season highs.

Source: FreightWaves (www.freightwaves.com)